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Securities Times Online learned from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, January 13, the RMB against the U.S. dollar central parity rate of RMB 6.5997 to 1, compared with the previous day (6.6128) 131 basis points higher again, the first time exceeded 6.6, re-creating a new high since the exchange rate reform.
Interbank foreign exchange market central parity rate of RMB against other currencies, the 1 euro for 8.6684 yuan, 100 Japanese yen to 7.9438 yuan, a dollar of 0.84907 yuan, 1 pound of 10.3978 yuan, 1 yuan of 0.46295 ringgit, one yuan for 4.5724 Russian ruble.
Concerned about a most important event
Chinese President Hu Jintao next week (January 19) visited the United States, the Foreign Ministry said it would discuss the RMB exchange rate issue with the United States. RMB against the U.S. dollar yesterday, then a new high since the reform of foreign exchange earnings, as Hong Kong stocks closed at RMB per U.S. dollar exchange rate has dropped to 6.6051, BOCOM before Hu's visit is expected in the yuan is expected to continue rising slightly, the Hong Kong stock is concerned, As the Hong Kong dollar linked exchange rate system, the renminbi continues to appreciate against the dollar will be conducive to Hong Kong-listed state-owned enterprises price revaluation of the Hong Kong stock constitutes a positive. The recent strong rebound in Hong Kong stocks may also be relevant.
Impact analysis
Inflation and appreciation of the structural bull market will lead A shares
Securities Daily reported that Hua Securities Research Center and the appreciation of inflation in 2011 will be the largest macroeconomic instability. Currently, the inflation situation is grim, CPI index to new heights. inflation indicators have become the primary factor in government decision-making. United States continued quantitative easing policy in countries with emerging economies caused by . current inflation situation in the market for increasingly severe birth to restart the expected rate hike cycle. It is noteworthy that the rate hike to limit the flow of current stock market of limited aptitude, may further strengthen the yuan appreciation expectations. So, in 2011 inflation and the appreciation of the dance macro, it will be 2011, the strongest voice of the macro-economic movement.
Securities Research Center believes that 2011 is the Thus, in the process of economic transformation, structural ferret out investment opportunities is the key to annual investment. in the investment strategy, focusing on the concept of a large consumer (commercial chains, food and beverage, tourism, catering and hotels, etc.), energy saving, new generation of information technology, heavy-duty high-end equipment, machinery and electronics sector, grasp the resource, real estate, finance and other investment opportunities plate stage, regional economic investment grasp the west to the east of investment ideas.
Appreciation of the impact of related industries
For the appreciation of the renminbi, a policy analyst, said the people's livelihood security, aviation, real estate, printing plates will benefit to varying degrees; and exporters stocks, such as textile stocks may be under pressure. He pointed out that the industry had estimated estimated that the RMB against the U.S. dollar for every 1% appreciation profits of textile and apparel industry will decline 4%. Tsinghua University, Senior Fellow, Research Center for China-US relations, Zhou pointed out, one in the textile and garment industry, the At least more than 25 million of the employment crisis, not including the other small enterprises, and enterprises outside the textile and apparel industry.
In addition, there are concerns from academics, entrepreneurs line deeper feelings. Jiangsu Going Group Chairman Xu Weimin said, China's textile industry products, the average profit of around 5%, many enterprises are only at 3%. If 1% appreciation of the renminbi is now nearly 20% profits of textile companies have to balance the pole; a revaluation of 5%, estimated nearly half of the textile enterprises are facing closure.
Sure that hot money trend of RMB appreciation, Aviation sector to enhance foreign exchange gains of results
Galaxy Securities calculated, for every 1% increase in the RMB, China Southern Airlines,personalized caps, Air China, China Eastern Airlines to decreased financial costs (while increasing the operating profit) 4.1 billion, 3.5 billion and 3.4 billion yuan, equal to the increase in earnings per share were 0.041 yuan , 0.026 yuan and 0.025 yuan, up by 3% if the yuan, China Southern Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines to increase earnings per share were 0.012 yuan, 0.078 yuan and 0.075 yuan.
Three-pronged approach to enhance performance of the company paper plate
RMB appreciation will make the paper industry to drop the cost of imports, because the paper companies, wood pulp accounts for about 65% the proportion of production costs to 75% of the RMB appreciation will reduce the imports of wood pulp and waste paper costs. Huatai Securities, said the United faster appreciation from the performance of listed companies to enhance the three aspects: first, the cost of paper-making enterprises accounted for the largest share of nearly 60% of the cost of raw materials in pulp and paper need to import more than 40%,cloth headbands, the RMB appreciation would reduce the cost of imported raw materials; second paper listed companies have more foreign currency liabilities, with the RMB appreciation will bring some enterprises exchange differences in profit or loss; Third, much of China's paper listed companies must imported some large paper machine, the RMB lower purchasing power the cost of purchased equipment; thus reducing financial costs and depreciation costs. recommendations concern Chenming Paper (000 488), Sun Paper (002 078), and Bo the Paper (600 966).
Appreciation of the real estate sector assets will constitute a long-term positive
Some analysts have pointed out that the A-share market appreciation of the renminbi will form the two major driving force in real estate stocks. First, from the physical world view, RMB appreciation will mean influx of hot money will be opportunistic, with the RMB assets of real estate properties to be sought after. The second is the stock of investment from the financial point of view, the RMB appreciation is also expected to mean the influx of hot money into the stock market, real estate stocks made strong buying support welcome. opportunities on the market outlook, SW Recommended companies include: Vanke, First City Chase (600067), China real estate industry (600,240), Fuxing shares (000,926). In addition, the in the context of real estate regulation, pay less), twelve to take to reduce the cost of joint development; and in transition, Long Yuan Construction, Hongrun Construction (002,promotional clothing,062) and other related concepts the company valuation.
Banking sector, RMB-denominated assets of RMB appreciation on the relatively high foreign currency liabilities of the larger industry and the industry may constitute good, but is slow due to the recent appreciation of the RMB appreciation on the related industries are expected to form short-term stimulus, long-term support and good form. where RMB business and RMB assets are owners of banks and other financial bodies, and therefore benefit from the appreciation of the renminbi. from the third quarter, the performance of bank stocks look, Guotai Junan statistics that the first three quarters of net profit of 16 listed banks rose 32.5%, slightly better than expected. 16 listed banks net profit of 524.8 billion yuan, an increase of 32.5%, more than 27% of the expected. which build community banks, CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000), China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo (002142) and China Everbright Bank (601,818) and other larger-than-expected margin. and maintain the banking sector (Securities Times)